NDSU

Biology 776  --  POPULATION DYNAMICS   --  Spring 2005
J. W. Grier

(For course syllabus, scroll down to bottom)

Last Updated: 4/27/2005

Announcements:

    (No current announcements; check here for weather problems, schedule changes, and related information)

Computer programs for students in the course:
(Various programs will be linked here as their use arises throughout the semester)

Software prepared to assist the learning curves in this course:

ESTSTRAT (currently in an old format, usually runs but often won't print on recent operating systems)

Population growth modeling programs ...
(Arg! several problems: PD45 runs good but won't print directly on operating systems newer than Windows 98. PD50 prints good but has problems in the deterministic and life table options so at present can only be used for the stochastic option, which works good except that it will only run up to 600 or so repetitions.)

[See class handout for further information and instructions, including re. printing.]

PD45

PD50 (beta/testing version) known problems in life table and deterministic, use only for stochastic
            [download to your computer and run it from there]

Use the following for the deterministic modeling (or PD45):

• Deterministic growth spreadsheet -- for blank (manual) form
• Deterministic growth spreadsheet -- example and for modifying
• Deterministic growth spreadsheet -- for recording information

Discrete version of logistic model

 

    Vortex software and related links, for PVA and endangered species. (Note: Vortex was originally
    based on my program SPG/PD, with additional categories of stochasticity added.)

• Vortex

 

Links to some of the (many!) sources of relevant (and usually more advanced) population-related software:

A large package of population ecology programs from Exeter Software

Software from Colorado State University (Gary White), mostly for mark-recapture
    (also see next section below; and note: several of the programs have been incorporated into
      the program MARK and are no longer recommended for use by themselves)

The Wildlife Society's software and links page

Phidot.org's population software page

Additional internet links:
(to be added as their use arises throughout the semester)

Mark-recapture ... a subject that has been, and continues to, expand rapidly!

• a concise (12 page) review by Lindberg and Rexstad (pdf)
• an extensive (134 page) review by Schwarz and Seber (pdf) (you might only get the 1st page or ...?)

• entrance to THE mark-recapture software package: MARK by Gary White

Human population information for the world (from United Nations) (5 year intervals)

• World Population Database

Syllabus and related information:

• Syllabus ...
  
  

  Biology 776 POPULATION DYNAMICS Spring Semester 2005

  The Measurement, Analysis, Biology, and Management of Populations

  Course web page: http://www.ndsu.edu/instruct/grier/popdyn.html

  Instructor: J.W. Grier, Stevens Hall 121, phone 231-8444, james.grier@ndsu.nodak.edu,
                      office hrs TWRF 2-3 PM, or as available or by appt.

  Course description: This course (1) attempts to cover a "big picture" overview of population dynamics and (2) goes into depth on a number of selected topics to facilitate further individual inquiry and work in the subject. The course content is described in the course subtitle, the schedule, and various other sections below.

  Objectives/outcomes:

  1. Obtain an overview and appreciation of the entire subject and various subdisciplines of population
      dynamics, not focus entirely on just one aspect or another.

  2. Delve into sufficient depth on some topics, such as sampling and modeling/simulation, so persons can
      (a) deal with the technical/professional literature and (b) go into depth in particular topics as necessary for
      their own interests and research.

  3. Develop an ability to critically analyze/think about and discuss the subject.

  4. Improve skills of working together with other persons in team or group settings.

  5. Enjoy the subject, i.e., have fun with numbers.

  Required student resources --

  Prerequisites: at least 1 qtr. or semester each of ecology, calculus, and statistics; an interest in working with numbers; and TIME -- there will be MUCH outside reading and calculating.

  Readings: There will be numerous readings from the literature, copies of which will be provided on shelves in room 107. Some of the reading assignments will be from various books, including Krebs, C. J. 1994. Ecology, the experimental analysis. HarperCollins. 4th ed., which will also be provided in the room. There is no assigned textbook per se. For personal copies of readings, see further information after the schedule.

  Materials: A 3-ring binder is recommended to organize notes and the many handouts (est. 95%CI = 250-350 pages total, or roughly 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches). You will need a calculator; plus much work will be done via computer.

  SCHEDULE

  The nominal meeting schedule for this course is 12:00-1:50 PM MWF. However, the course is flexible and we won't meet 2 hours per day, 3 days a week, for the entire semester. Days that we meet will usually involve two hours (with a break), although we'll sometimes meet less than two hours. If schedules permit (they probably won't), we might run more than two hours. To compensate for additional time over 4 hours per week, there will be some days that the class will not meet. By the end of the semester we'll have met or exceeded the amount of contact time for a 4-credit class.

  Time will be spent in three main ways: in-class lecture, in-class discussion, and a considerable amount of out-of-class work.

   

  TOPICS

  Introduction to course and subject

  I. POPULATION PARAMETERS AND THEIR ESTIMATION

    Numbers: sampling and estimates, indexes, and techniques -- intro.
    further considerations (including dispersion, precision, and bias)

    refinements ... searching for big animals and small variances, stratified sampling

    mark-recapture -- simple, multiple, and contemporary techniques

    problems and pitfalls

    Rates: recruitment, survival, and dispersals

    EXAM (closed book, equations provided and calculators allowed)

• DISCUSSION OF PUBLISHED PAPERS

  To go beyond the introductory/overview, organized level of population dynamics, to better sample the "real world" of the subject, and to draw each student into more active participation in the subject, each student will be required to analyze a published paper about some aspect of populations and discuss that paper with the class.

  The paper may be any population paper of the student's choice as long as it (1) pertains to some aspect of populations and (2) comes from a referred journal and is either recent (within the past 5 years) or, if not recent, a classic or otherwise meritorious paper. Alternatives to using a published paper include the presentation of one's own population data or a review of a population topic, meeting, etc. not covered in class. Persons wishing to do something other than a published paper should discuss it first with the instructor.

  The format on which you should organize the presentation (and on which you will be graded) is:

  1. State the nature of the particular topic and its significance or relevance to population studies in general (i.e., does it involve techniques, theory, modeling, actual populations, a combination of the above, or what).

  2. Further orient the class by presenting a brief but clear and concise background on the paper, including general principles and any unique terminology, symbols, etc. and referring to other publications if necessary.

  3. (The majority of the presentation.) Present the contents of the paper and explain them to the rest of the class.

  4. Provide your own personal critique and evaluation of the material. This is NOT to be confined solely to fault finding. Also search for good aspects, recognize logistical problems, etc., and propose solutions or describe how it might have been done better.

  5. Open up and lead a general class discussion on the paper and topic. Have specific items and questions prepared beforehand.

   

  Possible journals: Ecology, Journal of Wildlife Management, Wildlife Society Bulletin, Biometrics, Demography, Population Studies, and journals dealing with particular taxonomic groups such as insects, fishes, herps, birds, mammals ...

  A sign-up sheet will be passed around for choice of dates (and be sure to write down for own calendar/records).

• TEAM PROJECT

  The purposes of this exercise are to provide practice, experience, and testing of (1) team work, (2) investigative/analysis/reporting skills, and (3) subject material covering the 3rd part of the course involving a realistic setting. Some of the directions and requirements might seem more complicated or formal than necessary for just a class project. However, part of the exercise involves training and experience in group skills that are usually needed in real-life, professional positions. Also, this exercise is in response to complaints to the university from agencies, organizations, and employers that students might graduate with great individual skills but they generally lack training in team abilities.

  Note that this project will not require a formal written report per se, because of the limited amount of time available and all of the other work involved in this course. In "real life," however, a final written document is almost always required.

  Description. The members of the class will be divided into groups, based on roughly similar interests, with each group assigned to obtain, analyze-integrate, and report current information relating to one of the following categories of human interactions with animal populations:

  1. a harvestable species (of the group’s choice, e.g., white-tailed deer or walleye [fish] in MN and ND)

  2. a pest species (invertebrate or vertebrate, to include consideration of IPM principles developed for insects)

  3. an endangered species.

  Instructions.

  GENERAL --

  1. Obtain the most up-to-date information possible, within the available time, from both published and un-published sources on the assigned topic. Unpublished sources include unpublished agency or in-house reports and interviews with persons involved with the species. Searches will include standard library techniques for published information plus using the internet/WWW, e-mail, and perhaps telephone calls or even visits to the appropriate agencies, organizations, and persons for locating unpublished information and personal contacts.

  2. Prepare an oral report to be presented during the final exam period. Although a written report is not required, several items of documentation are required. Format and details for the report and documentation are given below.

  3. In order to accomplish the above as a team, choose roles and divide up the work: chair, secretary, person(s) to search the published literature, person(s) to find and contact the agencies/organizations/ experts, person(s) responsible for assembling and preparing the written drafts, and person to give the oral presentation. The chair and secretary positions for each group can be either for the duration of the project or on a rotating basis. Following a preliminary organizational meeting, it is suggested that the group have four or so meetings in order to stay on schedule, keep everyone in the group informed, and get things accomplished. Consensus building may be either informal or formal (with motions, seconds, voting, etc.). In view of the relatively short amount of time available, emphasis should be on getting, organizing, and integrating the information, not on "polishing" the written products. Thus, agendas, minutes, and notes etc. may be hand-written; type-written versions are not required.

  NOTE: The last part of the course will provide background information, principles, and perspective for each of the subjects (harvestable populations, pest populations, endangered populations) for incorporating into your final report. In the meantime, before all of the topics are covered in class, however, you can get organized as a group, set your schedules and deadlines, and start searching for information and making contacts, etc.

  SPECIFIC --

  Principles of team-work/ working together:

  1. Not only accept but welcome differences among group members in terms of talents, personalities, and opinions.

  2. Be tolerant and agree to disagree, work through different opinions until a consensus or decision can be reached.

  3. As a practical matter, one person (the chair) needs to be in charge. However, all members (including the chair) are equal and need to respect each other. No person is any better or any worse. You are all in this together.

  4. Work and effort are involved and cannot be avoided. Divide up the effort and everyone do different jobs, but divide it as fairly and equally as possible so that one or a few do not get left holding the whole bag while someone else goes along for a free ride. The best way to divide the work is to first determine what each person most wants to do. Assign the desired and uncontested jobs first, then figure out how to allot the remaining desired jobs that more than one person wants (either by further dividing the tasks, working together, or by flipping coins). Then assign the least desired jobs that no one wants but which none-the-less have to be done. This is best accomplished by someone volunteering for the tasks. If necessary, the "crummy" jobs can be assigned by considering everyone's total workload and weighting it with the trade-offs of desirability (e.g., giving a slightly lighter load to someone willing to do the less desirable tasks) plus perhaps by some coin-flipping.

  5. Get the job done! That is, be ready to set deadlines and schedules, make decisions, etc., and not let things go on forever. Before coming to final decisions, however, allow adequate time for brain-storming, thinking, discussion, and reasonable deliberation. Give issues their appropriate time, no more and no less. Some matters can be addressed and settled quickly and others simply require a little more time.

  6. In addition to maintaining respect for everyone, be tolerant and ready to give a little, expect the unexpected, maintain a sense of humor, be prepared to learn, and have fun!

  Position of Chair:

  1. Has a number of responsibilities and demands that need to be recognized as jobs in themselves and, hence, constitutes part of that person's workload.

  2. The chair should be someone who has a sense of humor, is a communicator, is fair but also can be firm, does not insist on getting his or her own way all of the time, has an attitude of being one of the group and not a "superior," is respected by the rest of the group, tolerates frustration, problems, and entropy, and someone who does not like meetings -- so you can get the job done and get out!

  BEFORE AND BETWEEN MEETINGS

  3. Maintains an overview of everything and where it is going, contacting others for updates as necessary, communicating relevant information to all members of the team, and making sure that the job ultimately gets done.

  4. Insures that there is a written agenda prior to each meeting, often by consulting with one or more of the group, or perhaps with the whole group such as when the agenda of the next, future meeting is determined as the final business of a meeting.

  5. In addition to setting agendas, stays alert to new issues, business, and announcements for future meetings.

  DURING MEETINGS

  6. Helps keep everyone oriented with brief preliminary comments; maintains an overview of time and progress during the meeting in case the meeting needs to be brought back on track or in case comments are needed to reorient everyone; and provides a brief summary of what was accomplished at the end of the meeting.

  7. Is in charge of the meeting and keeps it running --

  a) keep an efficient flow of business: allow enough time but not too much time for particular items;

  b) maintain peace and order and a sense of fairness so that all issues, viewpoints, and persons are heard;

  c) keep an open mind (but don't let your brains fall out!).

  8. Recommend: keep your own notes during meetings (e.g., on your copy of the agenda or separate paper) in addition to those kept by the secretary or recorder, for verification, back-up, and reference before the minutes come out. Also keep track of new issues and agenda items.

   

  Position of team Secretary (recording, not clerical):

  1. Responsibility occurs primarily during the meeting, with moderate responsibility between meetings to prepare minutes and communicate with chair as necessary.

  2. Characteristics include listening skills, ability to take sufficient notes to track what takes place during the meeting, and a memory to permit filling in the notes after the meeting.

  PREPARING MINUTES

  3. During the meeting try to keep as accurate and complete of running transcripts as possible. If discussion is going too fast, in too many directions, or otherwise is confusing and difficult to track, keep brief notes to jog your memory later and/or perhaps interrupt and ask for clarification or to slow down.

  4. Soon after the meeting prepare an initial draft of the minutes by summarizing (not just repeating verbatim) what transpired at the meeting.

  5. Have at least one other person who was at the meeting review your draft of the minutes to double check your coverage and interpretation. This is usually accomplished either by having the chair review and mark-up the draft or by submitting the minutes and having them approved at the next meeting. Revise the minutes as necessary. (For this exercise, a marked-up and/or approved [by chair or group as a whole] initial draft is adequate.)

   

  FORMAT FOR FINAL ORAL REPORT AND DOCUMENTATION/MATERIALS TO BE HANDED IN:

  1. Oral report -- (note: may be presented by one, some, or all of the team)

  a) A brief general introduction, background, and biological overview of the species and population(s) under consideration.

  b) A statement concerning the known or hypothesized problems and/or status of the species/population(s).

  c) A brief summary of your sources of information and contacts. I.e., who (agencies, organizations, and people) are doing what?

  d) The bulk of the presentation: a report of what is known (and not known) about the species/populations in terms of population information, ongoing studies, management steps proposed and underway, progress, and predictions. Indicate specific survey techniques being used or how data are gathered, analyses and computer or other models that are being used or proposed, and where things appear to be headed.

  e) A summary by your group giving your assessment of the species/population(s) situation by addressing each of the following checklist items regarding the species/population(s) in question:

  • i. habitat and range (geographic) factors

  • ii. food/vegetation/prey

  • iii. predators

  • iv. interspecific competition

  • v. intraspecific aspects (competition, genetic considerations)

  • vi. weather/climate and/or possible catastrophic factors

  • vii. human-related factors (both problems and management aspects)

  • viii. any other aspects that appear to be relevant (e.g., introduced exotics)

C. a list of roles, jobs, and work done for/by each person in the group.

D. a list of references and sources: published, unpublished reports, persons/agencies/organizations contacted. Include copies of e-mail correspondence and responses or notes from telephone conversations.

E. an evaluation from your group about this exercise: what did you like and not like about it, learn from it, and how would you recommend it be changed in the future?