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Business Planning -- Managing Constraints*
Farmers know that unexpected events will interrupt even the best developed plans. This step in the planning process is where owners identify and prepare for events that could interrupt or constrain implementing their farm business plan. These events are referred to as constraints; that is, events which significantly interfere with executing the plan. At this point in the planning process, farm owners can consider
Assessing and managing risk are major components of this step.
A constraint can be negative, such as adverse weather, higher than expected costs, or lower than expected yields or prices. Constraints also can be positive, such as a brief marketing opportunity, a chance to acquire an adjacent tract of land, or an unanticipated $20,000 revenue. Negative Constraints Negative constraints focus on what can go wrong in the business; what if production is below expectations, what if prices fall, what if disaster strikes, what if ... Being prepared to prevent a bad situation from becoming a disaster may be a determining factor in whether the owners' goals are met. Positive Constraints Positive constraints can be described as opportunities that arise. They pose the challenge of assessing whether the business is ready to take advantage of an unexpected break. Examples of opportunities include a chance to acquire an adjacent tract of land or to sell at a temporarily higher market price. In such situations, the business owners often need to act promptly before the opportunity is lost. Being prepared to quickly but adequately assess an opportunity and then to timely implement the decision is one method of managing positive constraints. Positive constraints also pose the challenges of
Even though negative constraints often are emphasized, the importance of being prepared for opportunities cannot be overlooked. Examples of Constraints Business owners face a wide range of constraints. The following list is provided only to suggest possible constraints; farmers who develop such a list for their operations will likely find that their list is more extensive.
This list could include any event that would interfere with the owners reaching their goals for profit, cashflow, equity accumulation, time off, and other personal interests. Questions farmers may want to pose to themselves as they develop the list might include
A review of previous steps in the planning process also may be helpful; for example, what resources does the business currently have available (step 1), what are the owners' expectations of the future (step 3), and what do the owners need to operate their farm in the future (steps 5, 6 and 7). Assessing the Importance of the Constraint Each constraint the owners identify is not of equal importance. Some constraints will be critical to the success of the business and the goals of the owners. Other constraints will be insubstantial. The level of importance of each constraint will be unique for each farm operation and its owners. Two factors should be considered in attaching importance to a constraint: 1) the probability that the constraining event will occur, and 2) the impact the event would have on whether the owners' goals are fulfilled. For example, constraints that are most likely to occur and that have the greatest impact on the business are the most important ones to consider. The least important constraints are those with the lowest probability and would have the least impact on fulfilling the owners goals. Information about probability and impact can be based on the farmers' data/experiences, or the experience of others. It may be helpful to think about the importance of a constraint as the product from multiplying the probability of the constraining event by its impact. The smaller the product, the less important is the constraint. Therefore, if either the probability or the impact is low, the need to address the constraint is not critical. Few business owners know the probability and impact of a constraint with statistical accuracy, but they almost always have a perception as to whether they think the probability and impact are high, moderate, or low. By relying on their experiences, farm owners should be able to identify which constraints are most critical to their operation. Business owners also can utilize sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of a constraint. This technique involves
For example, sensitivity analysis might reveal that a 8% drop in the expected market price will result in a 30% decrease in profit and eliminate 75% of the farm's cash reserve. Businesses with more extensive data can use additional analytical techniques such as 1) statistical procedures to compute a coefficient of variation or 2) the construction of a decision tree . Risk Management After having identified possible constraints and assessed their importance, the owners are ready to decide how they will manage their constraints. Several general observations can be made. First, the owners will want to manage the constraints, but not eliminate them. Negative constraints are the risks associated with operating a farm, and experience has demonstrated that eliminating risk also diminishes the opportunity to earn a profit. Therefore, owners who have a goal of earning a profit from their farm operation will not want to eliminate all their risks; but instead, manage them. Second, there are three basic management strategies with respect to risk/constraints:
Managing constraints is discussed further in the next section. Third, deciding which strategy to use will reflect 1) the business' capacity to assume risk, 2) the owners' willingness to assume risk, and 3) the trade-off between the outcome of the current risk exposure and the outcome of a reduced risk exposure. The business' capacity to assume risk is considered in completing step 1, whereas the owners' willingness to assume risk is part of step 2. Assessing the trade-off among various risk management strategies is part of this step. Fourth, in managing the constraint, the objective will be to 1) alter the probability of the event, 2) alter the impact of the event, or 3) both (before the event occurs), or 4) have a contingency plan to implement after the event arises. An example of each strategy would be
Additional Examples of Strategies to Manage Constraints It would be futile to attempt developing a list of all possible strategies for managing constraints (just as it would be futile in a preceding section to list all possible constraints). The following list of possible strategies is provided in the hope of stimulating ideas.
Constraint and Possible Strategies
The list of constraints and strategies is not all inclusive; most farm owners will probably add to both categories. However in all cases, farm owners will weigh the benefits of reducing or eliminating a constraint against the cost of that action. A strategy to manage a constraint should be adopted only if the benefits exceed the costs, and it moves the owners closer to fulfilling their goals. Again, some strategies will reduce the probability of an event (such as preventive maintenance reduces equipment breakdown, or a healthy lifestyle reduces illness). Other strategies will reduce the impact if an event occurs (for example, insurance). Contingency plans, on the other hand, are strategies that can be implemented quickly if an opportunity or constraint arises (such as maintaining a cash reserve). Some constraints cannot be overcome regardless of the owners' efforts and perseverance; for example, the climate of most of North America prevents the production of bananas. In such a situation, the constraint is not price or yield, but instead, a lack of comparative advantage, soil fertility, rainfall, or some other limitation. Hopefully, this type of limitation will have been identified and addressed in steps 5, 6 and 7 of the planning process. Another question farmers consider when identifying strategies to manage constraints is "how and why is this factor constraining or limiting the farm operation." The answer may identify how the resource is being used and suggest a strategy to improve the situation. As stated above, the strategy that the farm owners adopt reflects both their business' ability and their individual willingness to bear risk (as described in previous steps), but they are intertwined. For example, the capacity to assume additional production risks is influenced by the availability of insurance, production and management skills, and diversity of enterprises. Accordingly, proper management of risk exposure will extend the business' capacity to assume risk, and thereby, allow the owners to engage in additional activities. Likewise, storage capacity, perishability of the product, marketing skills, and willingness to use marketing tools (such as forward contracts and hedging) affect the capacity of a farm to assume price risks. A final question in devising and implementing a management strategy or contingency plan is whether the strategy needs to be followed only this production season or whether there has been a fundamental change in the business, industry, or operating environment that requires a permanent change. Although the answer to this question may not always be obvious, successful farm owners recognize its importance. Rationale for the Selected Strategy This activity involves explaining the rationale for selecting a particular risk management strategy. The general reason may be that it helps the owners fulfill their goals. However, specific reasons for adopting a particular strategy will vary. It may be that the strategy best fits the business' capacity to assume risk, or the owners' willingness to assume risk. Specifying the reason for adopting a strategy can be helpful in revealing assumptions, expectations, and the thought-process of the owners. In some cases, being able to quantify the trade-off among various strategies may be desirable, but most owners will not have the data necessary for such calculations (maybe they will in the future). More likely however, owners will continue to rely on their expectations and experiences to make decisions. Thus the reason for the decision may be a explanation of their thoughts, rather than extensive calculations.
Developing the reasons also may lead to a reassessment of the situation and a different decision. Finally, recording the thought process can reduce the problem of forgetfulness or selective recall. Goal for Selected Strategy The next activity in managing risk would be to set a goal or performance benchmark for the selected strategy (performance benchmarks are addressed in more detail in step 9). By setting a benchmark, the owners are specifying what they expect to accomplish by adopting the strategy. If the benchmark is not reached, a different strategy could be considered in the future.
Risk Associated with Selected Strategy Some constraints can be easily addressed (such as leasing out excess acreage), some can be addressed only with expenditure of substantial assets (such as inadequate livestock housing to overcome disease or rate of gain problems), and other constraints cannot be altered by the farmer (such as changes in government farm program, market prices, and weather). Each management strategy, however, exposes the operation to other risks.
Each of these examples illustrate that strategies to manage risk also expose the business and its owners to different risks. A question owners sometimes end up addressing themselves is "which risk should we accept." Worksheet The attached worksheet suggests activities business owners may want to consider in deciding how to manage the constraints that may impact implementing their business plan. These activities include
Conclusion Identifying and assessing factors that may substantially interfere with implementing the business plan allows farm owners to prepare for uncertainties and opportunities. Planning for unexpected events can reduce the amount of time spent in identifying and implementing an alternative when time may be most critical or when tension is at its highest. Being prepared for uncertainties is one step in the owners' efforts to reach their goals. * Prepared by David M. Saxowsky, Dr. Cole R. Gustafson, Dr. Laurence M. Crane, and Joe C. Samson, agricultural economists, Department of Agricultural Economics, North Dakota State University. August 1995. ** Diversification is most meaningful as a management strategy if the risks of the various activities are negatively correlated. Last Updated May 30, 2007 |
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Email: David.Saxowsky@ndsu.edu This material is intended for educational purposes only. It is not a substitute for competent professional advice. Seek appropriate advice for answers to your specific questions. |
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